October 18, 2021
Today big banks UBS and Barclays finally admitted that the Evergrande solvency issue is but a small part of the China economic crisis.
We reported earlier this month that the China economic crisis was coming.
Today big banks finally got on board. Markets Insider reports:
The ongoing crisis at the property developer Evergrande is infecting the broader Chinese economy, according to UBS and Barclays, who warned that growth will be much lower than previously expected in 2021.
The two banks said Evergrande’s looming default was squeezing the broader Chinese property sector – which is one of the main sources of growth in the economy. They also said China’s power crunch would act as a drag.
“Both onshore and offshore bond markets remain effectively closed for [property] developers while sales, the main source of cash flow, are dropping,” UBS analysts, led by chief China economist Tao Wang, said in a note on Monday.
Analysts at Barclays, including chief China economist Jian Chang, said there has been a “rapid deterioration of housing market sentiment as Evergrande financial difficulties [have] spread to more developers in October.”
We’ve been warning about the China investment crisis for years. We reported on President Trump’s months.
We learned last week that current trends are already worse than Goldman Sachs’s worst-case scenario.